LNH DIVISION 1 – Round 24

PAYS AIX UNIVERSITÉ CLUB HANDBALL VS US IVRY HANDBALL 12/04/2024 - 8PM

You miss one being and everything is depopulated
Indeed, we should see Ivry surpassing the 30-goal mark due to the quality of their duels. While Mouhamadou Sidibe, paired with Gerbas Barbaskas in the center of the Aix defense, brings more mobility, the lack of collective coherence weakens them. They are passive and do not direct opponents' decisions. Their success, therefore, depends more on individual gains than on collective organization to guide opponents where they want them. And it depends on their goalkeeper. Aymeric Zaepfel is expected to once again concede more than eight goals. However, this time he should be supported by the very reliable Jesper Jorgensen in the right-back position. He should exploit the outer interval once again. And his substitute should also have a great game. Despite struggling with continuity, he can individually exploit his qualities. Francisco Tavares is therefore expected, once again, to be one of the top scorers for his team. His explosiveness is very difficult to defend against individually. When defended by two players, it poses no problems as he struggles to pass after his duels. That's why against Aix, this should make the difference against their lack of collective coherence.

Finally, if Ian Tareafeta's absence continues, Aix will continue to fall short of the 30-goal mark. The young players replacing him are still a bit shaky. While they show quality shooting, there is a clear lack of game organization. The continuity of strong periods is therefore not present.
Considering all these factors, we expect a surprise victory for Ivry by a narrow margin of fewer than two goals.

CHAMBÉRY SAVOIE HB VS USAM NÎMES GARD 12/04/2024 - 8PM

Small ball game
Chambéry has somewhat drifted away from the race for Europe following their draw against Ivry. And yet, opportunities were not lacking that evening. However, they ran into a formidable David Bernard in goal, who thwarted all of Chambéry's wingers. Benjamin Richert managed to score only 5 out of 10 attempts, missing three penalties, while his replacement Antoine Tissot scored only 1 out of 5. On the other wing, Arthur Anquetil finished with 0 out of 1. Only Queido Traoré managed to find success with three goals out of four attempts. It's safe to say that it's difficult to win a match under such conditions. This allowed Ivry to close down on all the wingers. Therefore, it's important not to repeat the same mistakes against Joze Baznik or Alexandre Demaille, the two Nîmes goalkeepers who have similar profiles to the Parisian goalkeeper. On their side, Nîmes had a scare but still won by two goals. It was an opportunity for Yann Balmossiere to give more playing time to his young wingers, with Damien Gibernon finishing the game with five goals scored. So, what can we expect this Friday?
We should see Chambéry return to their usual standards with wingers finding success again. The wide game will still be in play. Erick Mathé, who gave more playing time to Lucas Vanegue, his substitute center-back, both in leading the attack and playing small ball with his two center-backs combined. This always brings more danger in the duels. However, it also shows some limitations in controlling the game with moments where he forces decisions. But with his two center-backs, Erick Mathé has enough options. And new possibilities against teams leaving too much space. Therefore, the Savoyards should once again surpass 32 goals against the Gardois.

On the other hand, Nîmes is expected to struggle against Chambéry's defense. It does not suit their project. The lack of duelists leads to a desire for collective sequences. But this is where the Chambéry defenders excel in their reading of the game. Pierre Paturel should therefore be timely in defending against all of Nîmes' screens. A real specificity to provide facilitating solutions to their shooters.

By keeping Nîmes to 30 goals, Chambéry should therefore win with a score around 32-30. They should thus get closer to their opponents of the evening to re-enter the race for Europe.


DIJON MÉTROPOLE HB VS C’CHARTRES MÉTROPOLE HANDBALL 12/04/ 2024 - 8:30 PM

Attack, Attack, Attack
Dijon believed in it but still surrendered to USAM. They ultimately fell short by just two goals with a score of 39-37. On the other hand, Chartres inaugurated their new arena, "Le Colisée," with its 3920 seats, had a disappointing debut. Their first significant home defeat against Limoges was a setback. However, what a tool for the future it is. Chartres should enjoy many great years in their arena. But for now, they are visiting the bottom-placed Dijon. Victory is therefore essential. They aim to climb back into the top half of the table. This will require another win in Bourgogne.

And that's what we think will happen. The spaces between the Dijon defenders will allow Chartres to score easy goals. Especially by Yvan Verin, the key duelist of his team. Through his exterior duels, he should end up being one of his team's top scorers. He will be accompanied by Aleksa Kolakovic, but above all by a player who has been less visible lately. Vadim Gayduchenko should use his changes of pace to beat Bastien Khermouche or Marc Poletti, the opposing central defenders. The Dijon players will certainly help each other, but they are a bit far apart. The reading is therefore easy because the help comes very early in terms of timing. An extra pass is sufficient, or a greater speed in the duel to finish alone. As long as Dijon does not win a duel, they will struggle. They are getting closer and closer to the Proligue. It shouldn't be long before it's officially mathematically confirmed. They will need to find defenders for next season to hope to bounce back quickly. But this lack is cruel and does not allow them to validate their good offensive play with positive results.
And that should be the case again this Friday, where Chartres is expected to prevail in a very offensive match with a scoreline around 36-33.


LIMOGES HAND 87 VS ARAN LOIRET HB 12/04/ 2024 - 8PM

We said collective
Limoges has reached the pinnacle of what every team and coach desires: a match sheet filled with all present players. And that's exactly what happened against Chartres. A beautiful victory of 40-32 where all players scored at least one goal and contributed to the team's success. This demonstrates great stability in the project. The danger comes from everywhere. It becomes difficult to defend against. Saran should therefore struggle to control the opponent's game. One moment from afar, another in the center, another on the wings, another inside, the danger alternates and adapts to the opposing plans and adjustments. Saran, who remains above the relegation zone with their point from the draw against Cesson. A good match that ended with a score of 34-34. They still have some regrets after being ahead by 4 goals at halftime. Something exceptional indeed this year.

But as mentioned, they will have great difficulty reducing the impact of the opponent's attack against Limoges. The game is complete and suits a very good David Iglesias at the moment. This young Spanish left back is reaching new heights. Both from afar and by exploiting his duels, he is a complete player with a good understanding of the game. His choices are often right according to the opposing defensive orientation. Well spotted by his compatriot and coach Alberto Entrerios, he brings something different to the position than Ihor Turchenko. It's a very effective duo. William Accambray and Théo Clarac, the pivot defenders, will struggle to put pressure on these two backs. They should therefore be the top scorers for their team.

Limoges is expected to win comfortably with a scoreline around 35-28. Depending on the results, they could take a big step towards European qualification. In any case, that's all we wish for at Beaublanc in Limoges. The European basketball matches are over, it's time for handball.


MONTPELLIER HANDBALL VS DUNKERQUE HANDBALL GRAND LITTORAL 13/04/2024 - 8PM

Catching second place?
Montpellier has managed to maintain its momentum after qualifying for the Champions League quarter-finals. And what a way to do it! A 42-38 victory against their usual bogey team, Saint-Raphaël. Stas Skube, the Slovenian genius, once again delivered with his 8 goals. This time they will face Dunkirk, who easily surrendered to Toulouse. A slight disappointment in their positive momentum, which made us believe in a much stronger commitment than what was displayed. Montpellier, on the other hand, is still chasing the second place, which means Champions League qualification. They probably hoped that with Nantes facing Paris, they could close the gap to one point from HBC Nantes. Unfortunately, Nantes won and remains three points ahead of Montpellier. However, the season is still far from over, and Montpellier will try to hang on until the end. Patrice Canayer hopes to finish on a positive note.

Montpellier's game, based on movement around the random strong points of its players, will trouble defenders like Kornel Nagy. While he may handle the initial strong points well, the successive ones will put him off balance. The same goes for a former player of Montpellier, Benjamin Afgour. He, too, will struggle to handle all these sequences. Valentin Kieffer may find himself a bit isolated in his efforts to reduce the number of Montpellier goals.

Offensively, it's hard to see how Dunkirk can make a difference either. Certainly, the two former Montpellier players, Jean Loup Faustin, will try to find opportunities for their pivot. But this might be insufficient over the course of 60 minutes. They must also manage to put Karl Olivier Konan off balance, but Dunkirk's gameplay might not consistently pose a significant threat. It allows too much time for the defense to regroup. So, only if Dunkirk wins the initial strong points, will the danger be present. However, we don't believe they will dominate for the entire 60 minutes. Montpellier will accelerate the game even more to secure victory with a scoreline around 36-28. They will continue to put pressure on Nantes.

HBC NANTES VS US CRÉTEIL HANDBALL 12/04/ 2024 - 8:30 PM

Validate the feat
Nantes pulled off the big upset of the weekend, but they weren't alone. Créteil also had their moment. Two teams, each at their level, will clash with a bit of euphoria in their ranks. Nantes finally brought down PSG, who were previously undefeated, facing the onslaught led by Thibaud Briet and his teammates. The disappointment of not making it to the European Championship with the French national team has fueled their motivation to show everyone in the handball world that they are among the best players in the league. Alongside Aymeric Minne, they continue to perform at a high level, even against top teams like Paris. It's likely they hope to be part of the French national team's journey to the Olympics in Paris. These two players will once again be supported by the brilliance of Julien Bos, who displays incredible composure. In crucial moments of the game, he's the one making the right decisions to make the difference. There's no doubt that Nantes will surpass 35 goals again, especially against Créteil, one of the weakest defensive teams in the league. As mentioned earlier, Créteil impressively defeated Aix. Despite the absence of Kylian Rigault, which could have been detrimental, the Créteil team controlled the game without their exceptional but unpredictable player. With fewer turnovers than usual, Créteil managed to climb out of the relegation zone. This success raises many questions for Barbeito on how to finish the year on a high note. Self-reflection to gain perspective is always crucial for coaches and will naturally be done to learn for the future. However, not for this Friday, as the mountain is too high. Nantes should logically and easily secure victory with a scoreline around 38-30.


PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN HANDBALL VS SAINT-RAPHAËL VHB 12/04/2024 - 8PM

No defense
Paris have just suffered their first defeat this year in the championship, beaten in a blazing H Arena by Nantes. Despite Elohim Prandi's 11 goals, they failed to withstand the onslaught of Aymeric Minne. After their qualification for the Champions League quarter-finals, they couldn't replicate their success. They were likely a bit fatigued, clearly lacking depth on the bench. They rely mainly on three key players and thus lack balance in their attacking threat. However, they are facing one of the weakest defenses in the league, Saint-Raphaël. They recently conceded 42 goals against MHB and could be in for a similar challenge again. There's no doubt that Paris will exploit all the opponents' weaknesses. With a normal week of preparation, Parisians will arrive fresh for this offensive battle. Even though they conceded 42 goals, they managed to score 38 themselves. So, another highly offensive match is expected. Mike Brasseleur will continue to pose a threat with his long crosses outside the sector. He seems to have adapted to Benjamin Braux's game plan and is delivering high-quality performances consistently, as evidenced by his 12 goals in the last match. He, along with José Marquez, continues to pose a threat from game to game. However, as long as they don't focus on defense, they won't defeat any of the top teams in the championship. Benjamin Braux has a lot of work to do to reverse this trend. Their 1-5 defense didn't work against Montpellier, who had anticipated their tactic. Raul Gonzalez, the Parisian coach, will also have devised a plan to disrupt this tactical choice. Jacob Holm should bring significant offensive threat with his duel and shooting abilities. He will complement the formidable trio to ensure PSG scores over 38 goals once again. Paris will therefore roll up their sleeves and reignite their momentum to comfortably finish the championship towards the title. They will win with a comfortable scoreline around 38-32.


FENIX TOULOUSE HANDBALL VS CESSON RENNES MÉTROPOLE HB 11/04/2024 - 8PM

Release your balls
Toulouse continues to impress. In a potential trap match in the Flanders region, they managed to secure a comfortable victory. Leading 20-17 at halftime, they maintained their advantage to ultimately win 36-30. Despite having little left to play for with a fourth place almost guaranteed, they have shown great professionalism. With a 6-point lead over the teams below them and a 5-point lead over their predecessors, they demonstrate a high level of dedication. Now, they face Cesson, who have slightly disappointed with a draw obtained against Saran. They have had two consecutive draws in their last two matches, indicating their resilience and difficulty to overcome with their solid defense. However, when their goalkeepers are absent, as was the case in the last game, they conceded 34 goals against one of the weakest attacks in the league. Therefore, Toulouse must remain focused if they don't want to be surprised by this team. The resilient Bretons, known for their strong character, will not go down easily.

The match is likely to unfold in this manner. Toulouse will control the game but may struggle at times in attack against the determined Cesson players. Their defensive strategy will be evident, aiming to disrupt the opponent's game plan. Casper Kall and his team must execute their passes effectively and avoid turnovers, as this is one of their strengths. While they may experience less continuity in attack, they will create opportunities, particularly through Gabriel Nyembo, their pivot. In response, the Bretons will try to counter in attack. However, the absence of Mathieu Salou will limit their long-range threat, with most other backs preferring to finish from 6 meters. This allows Toulouse to maintain a compact defense, utilizing their mobility to collectively shut down their opponents.

As mentioned, against resilient opponents like Cesson, Toulouse should still emerge victorious by 3 to 4 goals. Ayyoub Abdi, their right-back, is expected to be the top scorer of the match.