LNH Proligue, Round 22
Besançon vs. Caen
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On November 24th last year, the last time these two teams met in Bourgogne-Franche Comté, Caen won 29-28. Soon, the Kinder Arena de Caen will decide the victor of this clash between the fifteenth and ninth in the standings. Caen must absolutely go all in during the next sixty minutes to climb higher than the penultimate spot. Following a loss to Pontault-Combault on March 8th by 34-27, they also hope for an outstanding performance from Anger against Sélestat (fourth). Portuguese player Pereira and the other two main scorers of the Normandy yellow-red seven must replicate the first-leg result by overcoming Russian goalkeeper Dhimitri Kholmov. Defensively, the Normans' man-to-man pressure on the half-backs aims to recover as many balls as possible for fast breaks or counter-attacks. Since their last encounter, the teams have evolved differently: goal differences, rankings, and scoring percentages highlight Besancon’s improvements over Caen. The defenses of both teams are comparably ranked, with the upcoming hosts in thirteenth and the visitors in fourteenth. The white-and-blues have three wins in their last five outings, compared to their opponents' two. Caen has won 100% of the last three clashes, with the last victory for the athletes from Doubs dating back to May 2022. An evenly matched game is expected, with either team having the chance to win or draw.
Leo Stand
Surprise expected?
You can feel that Caen is on the verge of turning the tide and securing their survival. Currently second to last with the same number of points as Angers above them, they are likely to overtake them, possibly as soon as this Friday night. They face a Besançon team that is always intriguing but also inconsistent. Besançon is coming off a strong victory, defeating Angers 30-23. However, the new home of the Normans is eager for victories. Playing against a team fighting to avoid relegation is never easy.
Caen desperately needs this win. They should have the edge, especially in their attack, and surpass 30 goals. The weakness of Besançon lies in defending against the pivot, which happens to be one of Caen's strengths. Although they excel more in sliding movements rather than gaining positions, their connections with Jordan Allais and Sacha Mantz should be effective on Thursday night. The two of them combined should be the top scorers of the evening, well-supported by the wide movements of their backs. Therefore, what we should expect is to see Caen executing movements around the pivot to finish inside or in the upper gap. The duel qualities of Emilien Deschamps-Huard should help create spaces for his teammates.
In defense, Caen might face challenges from the attacks of Lucas Jametal and Sébastien Danesi, the two Besançon backs. However, this should not be enough against the energy that the Caen players will put in to secure their survival. Their determination will transcend their defensive level, and teamwork will be crucial. This energy will overpower the offensive quality of the opponents.
With heart and determination, Caen should emerge victorious with a scoreline around 30-27. This would finally lift them out of the relegation zone.
Angers vs. Sélestat
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As mentioned, this match features the home team, fourteenth, against a team ten places higher. The western team's stars are Brazilian, Tunisian, and Egyptian: Santos, Ghoul, and Abdelhak, playing as goalkeeper, right back, and pivot, respectively. On the other side, Tom Vinatier aims to surpass 100 goals, currently at 96. The central player, trained at the club he's now contracted with, will also be the rhythm setter for the visitors' organized offense. His younger attacking partner on the right, Hugo Pimenta, born in May 2003, has already breached the opposition's defense 100 times this season. Icelandic teammate Gretar Gudjonnson, often donning the yellow jersey, boasts 126 saves with a 31 percent success rate. Sélestat has won all three recent matches against Angers, with five victories in all their historical meetings. A victory for Angers remains elusive, but who knows if that will change this Friday night at salle des Haras. The previous encounter ended 31-28 in favor of the Purples, with the Tunisian left-hander making a significant impact. Another likely win for Sélestat is anticipated unless the underdogs can create a historic upset.
Leo Stand
Jumping without a parachute
Angers continues its freefall. And it should continue this Friday against Sélestat. They can't seem to find their offensive rhythm anymore. There's no danger, not a single player winning their duels, and the connections with the pivot are increasingly forced. Despite trying different defensive strategies, the number of offensive turnovers kills them every weekend. The goalkeepers must be tired of facing counterattacks after counterattacks.
The same scenario is expected this Friday. Tanguy Thomas, with his speed, should thrive on counterattacks and end up among the top scorers for his team.
For Sélestat, it's evident that Hugo Pimenta's absence weighs heavily. Moreover, it seems that the coach is struggling to find the right team balance. Indeed, his young players are still inconsistent and struggle to maintain a high level of performance. It's not easy to decide who to put on the field at the right time, as the gap in skill level between players isn't that high. Therefore, he must adapt based on the opponent's profile and the success or failure of the evening. It's a challenging task for Laurent Busselier to make choices.
However, this shouldn't pose any problems this Friday. The gap between the two teams is too significant. It's crucial to focus defensively to regain possession and move forward. The youth and vigor of Sélestat should easily surpass 33 goals and put Angers in trouble. They have been struggling since their heavy defeat against Cherbourg. It's evident that serenity is lacking. Therefore, we see Caen overtaking them by the end of the season. Angers should only maintain its position because no other club than Dreux can be promoted to the ProLigue. As mentioned, Sélestat should win by 8 goals, scoring 50% of their 34 goals through fast breaks. The freefall has not been halted yet.
Billère vs. Valence
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In their last three encounters, the hosts have won twice, leaving one victory for the visitors. Considering all nine matches played between the two teams, Billère leads with six wins, three for Valence, and a single draw. Eduardo Reig-Guillen had a 69 percent shooting success in their last meeting, highlighting his prowess in one-on-one situations and his 25 ball recoveries this season. The match on September 22, 2023, showcased Valence's balanced scoring. Their goalkeeper made an outstanding seven saves from ten attempts, a phenomenal performance for the young player born in 2006. Julien Bousquet, not yet eighteen, shows immense potential as a goalkeeper. The upcoming match is unpredictable, with a home victory for Billère being conceivable.
Leo Stand
It's all a question of rhythm
Billère, who hasn't played since March 1st, will have to get back into action. Hopefully, they haven't lost their positive momentum. Before their break, they had almost pulled off an upset against Tremblay but ended up losing by just one goal. It's not easy to restart a match dynamic and get back into the groove after such a long hiatus.
On the other hand, Valence has done enough to secure their survival but comes into the match with three losses in their last four games. This could be a potential trap for Billère, considering the challenge of managing the pace against Valence. It's crucial to restart the momentum, but the Drôme team won't make it easy in this regard. If there's a surprise, it will likely hinge on this aspect.
In terms of gameplay, the quality on Billère's side is undeniable. They are solid defensively, especially around their leader Alexandre Aguilar in the 3-back position, and they also play a refined offensive game. They alternate between strong starts, with duels from Valentin Doudeau, and short and long cross movements to set up their shooters in good positions.
For this Friday, it's likely that defense will make the difference by keeping the Valence team to a maximum of 26 goals. Billère's dense and rather low defensive strategy will close down options for Bilal Ben Brahim, the successful Valence pivot, and tighten spaces around Tom Bertini's duels.
That's why Billère should secure a controlled victory against this Valence team. However, they must remain cautious about the pace of the game.
Cherbourg vs. Istres
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This match highlights Vincent Gerard, a decorated French national player with numerous accolades over the past decade. Since arriving unexpectedly from Kiel, where he battled physical issues, he's faced competition from compatriot Samir Bellahcene. This match promises to be an exciting clash, with Cherbourg hosting Istres after a balanced head-to-head in their last meeting. Sélestat’s Reida Rezzouki, a left-winger with a 70 percent shooting rate, will be a key player for the visitors.
Leo stand
Make way for the internationals
Istres, currently 3rd with 29 points, is visiting Cherbourg, who are 5th with 22 points. They are the two most in-form teams at the moment, behind Tremblay. Istres is coming off four consecutive victories, while Cherbourg had won four in a row before their surprising home defeat against Nancy. It's important for Cherbourg to ensure that the long-term injury of Andry Goujon Bellevue does not significantly affect them. During this international break, we also had the opportunity to see Nicolas Bono, the Cherbourg center-back, facing the French team with the Argentine team. He proved that he can also perform at the international level, which makes him a valuable asset for his coach, Edu Fernandez. However, it's worth noting that Nicolas Bono has already signed with Istres for next year, adding an interesting dynamic to this match. These situations are common in handball but are never easy to handle. Nevertheless, Bono's level of play will pose a challenge for the Istres defenders. Interestingly, after winning his duels, he will have to face off against his opponent for this weekend, goalkeeper Vincent Gérard. Gérard, who was selected for the French team, made a significant impact against Argentina, showing his determination to secure a spot in the Olympics. However, he will need to deliver strong performances in the Proligue if he wants to maintain his place, unless the bond of friendship outweighs performance.
Despite the challenges, Istres, with their experience, should come out on top once again. Their defense is expected to limit Cherbourg to 28 goals, considering the offensive quality of their opponents. Although Geoffroy Carabasse's impact has diminished compared to before, Istres still has undeniable firepower in their backline. Right-back Raphaël Kotters, in particular, has been scoring consistently, netting five goals in the last match. Cherbourg will struggle to contain Istres' attacks.
Therefore, Istres is expected to secure victory with a scoreline around 32-28.
Tremblay vs. Frontignan
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Tremblay, leading this season's Proligue, faces Frontignan. Despite a home loss to Sélestat, Tremblay has been dominant, with Cyril Doumoulin and Tiago Rocha anchoring their defense. Tremblay's potent attack, led by Jean-Pierre Dupoux, contrasts with Frontignan’s balanced effort. Given the recent direct confrontations favoring Tremblay, a straightforward victory for the leaders is expected.
This series of matches showcases the dynamics of the league, from the struggle for survival to the battle for supremacy, illustrating the intense competition and the unpredictability of outcomes in professional handball.
Leo Stan
Midfielders
Cournon has been experiencing a downturn for some time now, which is understandable for a team that has recently been promoted. However, it may not be easy for some to understand. After surprising everyone at the beginning of the season, opposing teams have adjusted to their strengths and increasingly exploit their weaknesses. Video analysis allows for this level of preparation. That's why players must broaden their skill set if they wish to maintain their performance levels. For example, players like Lucas Musy, who are now expected to excel in their duels and shooting accuracy. Until his gameplay opens up passing opportunities to his teammates, his style will remain predictable and therefore easier to read. It took several months for all Proligue defenders to become familiar with him.
However, Cournon's difficulty, and what Pontault Combault will naturally exploit, lies in their midfielders. It's very challenging for Marjan Kolev to manage a team with, so to speak, "half" players. Indeed, those who excel in attack often struggle defensively, and vice versa. As a result, Cournon sometimes makes two to three changes between offense and defense. However, this is not sustainable against Pontault Combault's fast-paced gameplay. The speed at which Pontault exploits turnovers and missed shots, as well as their quick engagements with one of the wingers cutting through the center, makes it impossible to make those changes. Pontault will then be able to exploit the defensive weaknesses of the players remaining on the field.
We are eager to see whether Marjan Kolev will make an offensive or defensive choice against tonight's opponent. However, he will have to make a decision and stick with it, removing the option for frequent changes.
This is why Pontault Combault will have the upper hand and secure victory with more than 34 goals on the scoreboard.