LNH Starligue, Round 22

PAYS AIX UNIVERSITÉ CLUB HANDBALL VS HBC NANTES

MARCH 29, 2024 - 8PM

Is one man enough?

Certainly, Nantes is in top form, and whatever happens at the moment, they always find resources. Nantes was struggling against Toulouse, and then Ivan Pesic came in. He made a series of saves to allow the Nantes team to win 40-30. This came after they had a tough time defeating them just three days earlier in the French Cup. The depth of their bench is incredible. The second or even the third team could contend for the top spots in this championship. They need this depth to cope with their upcoming fixtures. Now it's time for the trip to Aix. A club that thrives on its inconsistency. It's a clear sign of a lack of cohesion. The Aix squad is also well-stocked, but we believe that roles are either undefined or not accepted. However, managing group dynamics is essential to achieving the desired results. It's not easy for Philippe Gardent to find the keys because every weekend brings its own challenges. Apart from Ian Tarrafeta, the Spanish center, none of the other players consistently perform at a high level. Even a player like Romain Lagarde, a former international, struggles to secure a starting spot. Interestingly, Lagarde will reunite with his former coach Gregory Cojean at Nantes. The two have come a long way since they first met. Lagarde must be very grateful for the support of his mentor. And there is no doubt that he will be eager to prove his qualities and the progress he has made to his former coach. Therefore, they might be one of the top scorers of the evening at the H Arena, a venue Lagarde knows well even though he passed through Rezé, to reminisce about the good times. He will undoubtedly help his team surpass the 30-goal mark. However, this may not be enough against Nantes' striking power. Their wide game makes them one of the best teams at exploiting the first strong period. Their consistency during this period is incredible; they rarely get caught off guard and manage to pose a threat in all their moves.

That's why they are very difficult to defend against. Therefore, Nantes should once again win with a score around 38-32. The defensive weaknesses of Aix will be severely tested.

CESSON RENNES MÉTROPOLE HB VS SAINT-RAPHAËL VHB

MARCH 30, 2024 - 8PM

It leans

20 to 9, that's the feat Cesson managed to pull off in one half to win 39 to 31. While trailing by 3 goals at halftime, they completely turned the tide with the outstanding performance of Akon Ekren, the young Norwegian center. His duels and shots pierced through Chartres' defense and goalkeeper. Now that they have gained a full dose of confidence with such a scenario, they can expect to prevail against Saint-Raphaël. The latter reignited the Nîmes team without defending, resulting in a 39-37 defeat at the Parnasse. This indicates a clear decline in defense, despite it being their strength and culture for years. Currently, they have the second-worst defense in the league behind Dijon, conceding an average of 34 goals per match. Nevertheless, they still hold the 5th position, highlighting the effectiveness of their offense, which is the 3rd best in the league, scoring an average of 33.6 goals per match. Therefore, if Cesson manages to replicate last week's defensive performance, there is little doubt about the final score. However, regardless, the score will likely be very high, with numerous possessions, as both teams play a fast-paced game. Hence, spectators can expect an open and enjoyable offensive match.

Cesson should target the left side where defensive weaknesses appear for Saint-Raphaël. Martial Cais struggles to close gaps at the right timing and compensate for over-help from his backline. The height of the second line sometimes leaves him isolated, especially in pivot slides. Junior Tuzolana on Cesson's side and all the backs capable of exploiting the gap should have a field day this weekend. This is where the strength of Robin Molinie should be frequently found. Another issue with their defense lies in the difficulty of swift transitions among the three back positions. The absence of Nik Henigman due to injury has been clearly detrimental, as he arrived as a specialist. His absence has increased their average goals conceded. Therefore, the center should be open for Mathieu Salou or for the impact provided by Daniel Mosindi in the center. Both left-handed players, each brings a lot of variety to the game, posing a challenge for opposing defenses. Sébastien Leriche regularly rotates his team to maintain this variety, which was slightly excessive at the beginning of the year, but now the players seem to have embraced the game plan with each other. This naturally varies depending on the players on the court, becoming an increasingly exploited weapon by the Bretons. Thus, they should use it again this weekend with a potential surprise victory for Cesson, with a score around 36 to 32.

CHAMBÉRY SAVOIE HB VS LIMOGES HAND 87

MARCH 29, 2024 - 8PM

Offshore play

Once again, at the Phare, Chambéry continues to gain points and places over their direct competitors. A small group is vying for the fifth spot, including Chambéry and Limoges, the two opponents tonight. With 22 points each, they are battling for the spot just one point ahead, currently held by Saint-Raphaël. Five teams are in close proximity with points ranging from 23 to 22. This indicates that the European qualifying spot is highly sought after. Will Chambéry once again manage to secure a place in European competitions, or will Limoges achieve this for the first time in the club's history? We eagerly anticipate this confrontation, with the Savoyards easily defeating Pays d'Aix and Limoges only faltering towards the end of the first half against Paris. Unfortunately for them, the match was decided and controlled thereafter. Both teams are currently going through a somewhat sluggish phase, with Limoges securing only one victory in their last five matches.

We are concerned for them because their defensive project rarely works in the 1-2 interval. Often, the space is left to the backcourt players in the outer interval. The choice is made to leave this interval open rather than closing it and allowing a wing shot. However, this plays directly into Chambéry's game plan, which should exploit their principles of play even more than usual. Gustavo Rodriguez and Alejandro Costoya, the two Savoyard backs, will therefore have plenty of shooting opportunities. Then, their duel with the opposing goalkeeper will be crucial. It's worth noting, however, that they are most effective in close-range situations. Yet, with backs effectively attacking the touchline, their runs even in this interval allow them to reopen their angle. It is primarily through this aspect that they find success. Moreover, to stick to their game plan, we see that Erick Mathé sometimes entrusts Lucas Vanegue with the keys to the attack to learn from Sebastian Skube. The young center- back has the same qualities in duels but struggles to deliver balls consistently to his backs in this space. He still lacks in reading the number one. However, it's evident that he is trying, and he may attempt to supplement his mentor.

This width of play leads us to believe that Chambéry should once again emerge victorious at the Phare in a fairly tight match. A victory around 30 to 28 is expected.

DIJON MÉTROPOLE HB VS DUNKERQUE HANDBALL GRAND LITTORAL

MARCH 29, 2024 - 8:30PM

Too many spaces

Dijon has once again taken a big step towards relegation. While facing one of their direct opponents for survival, they suffered a 33-23 defeat against Ivry. They are now 4 points adrift of the first non-relegation spot, with no head-to-head advantage. With only 2 wins this season, they face a daunting task with a 3-game difference.
This time, they face Dunkerque, who should start looking up. With safety secured, albeit not mathematically, their 12-point lead allows them to shift focus away from the bottom. Their controlled victory against Saran indicates that they have moved past the phase of struggling against smaller teams.

This trend is expected to continue in Burgundy this weekend. Despite missing Benjamin Afgour in pivot and defense, future Nantes pivot Shuishui Yoshida fills in admirably. Their physical power and duel qualities should prevail over Dijon, who struggle when they fail to put in the necessary defensive effort together. Consequently, they leave gaps everywhere, making it easy for opponents to exploit one-on-one situations or two-player connections. There's no need to seek continuity when initial strong actions immediately make a difference. This is where Tom Pelayo and the aforementioned pivot should excel effortlessly. Since they manage to get behind their direct defenders effectively, team play will be even more challenging until they tighten up defensively. Dunkerque's attack should therefore be able to make the difference on its own this time. We might also see Ô'Bryan Nyateu, who has seen limited minutes in recent weeks, making an impact. His upper body strength will likely dominate, especially considering Dijon's noticeable weaknesses in strength and power. OB is expected to score over 5 goals and help his team secure a controlled and assured victory.

The final score could be around 30-24 in favor of Dunkerque.

MONTPELLIER HANDBALL VS C’CHARTRES MÉTROPOLE HANDBALL

MARCH 30, 2024 - 8PM

Where is Patrice Canayer?

While Chartres was on a good winning streak, they suffered a setback at home against Cesson. Despite leading by 3 goals at halftime, they completely faded in the second half to lose 31-39. It seemed like the lights had been turned off in the arena. Such a massive collapse will require thorough analysis to avoid a repeat performance. One can imagine hours spent analyzing video footage before facing Montpellier.

Montpellier, on the other hand, cruised to a 35-26 victory at Créteil. For Patrice Canayer's final season at the helm of the club, they continue to master their craft with an always attractive style of play. Stas Skube, the Slovenian center back, is returning to form after overcoming some physical setbacks. His speed and high-quality passes enhance Montpellier's offensive capabilities. But where is Patrice Canayer? Many believed he would sail into retirement smoothly, mirroring the team's results. However, he didn't take well to the defeat in the French Cup against a depleted PSG. Consequently, he took a step back to give his players more room and responsibility. David Degouy, his assistant and future coach of USAM, has taken over training sessions for the past week. A strong reaction is expected in the Champions League and the domestic league. We hope this will allow Mr. Canayer to end his career at Montpellier on a high note, as he deserves. After all, he has brought so many titles to Montpellier, but leaving without a title is certainly hard to digest.

Nevertheless, Montpellier's team should still exceed 34 goals this weekend. Expect Ilija Abutovic to be overwhelmed by the intricate plays, while Bryan Monte, the Brazilian left back, should be the team's top scorer, exploiting imbalances created by his center back. The entire central defense of Chartres is likely to struggle, including Hugo Jund. There won't be time to think against Montpellier, as one strong move leads to another without any real weak moments. The hope for Chartres to contain Montpellier lies solely with their goalkeeper Milan Bomastar, known for his close-range heroics.

It will be crucial for Montpellier players to be attentive to their finishing. It was a relatively calm week before a series of matches, especially with the Champions League looming. Therefore, they must be wary of surprises, albeit later on.
We expect Montpellier to secure a victory with a scoreline around 34-25.

PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN HANDBALL VS US IVRY HANDBALL

MARCH 31, 2024 - 5PM

We said compact

Paris, slightly depleted in recent weeks, continues their steady progress. Still undefeated, they embark on a significant phase towards their objectives this week. With the championship almost secured, they kick off their European campaign. It's essential not to lose too much ground in the league and maintain their lead. However, facing Ivry will not be easy. Even though Ivry will play without pressure and are coming off a great match against Dijon, they need space to be effective. But when the players are far apart, what a game they produce! Full of duels and players fully committed to the goal, they are very enjoyable to watch and highly efficient.

Leading the charge is Léo Martinez, who has signed for Romania next year, continuing to exploit spaces. And when it's not him, they bring in Antonin Mohamed, their left winger, to attack the opponent's central defenders. However, against Paris, a different profile is needed, more of long-distance shooters. Indeed, the Parisian defense is rather dense. They leave very little space for pivots but allow shots from afar, where the relationship with the goalkeeper needs to be most effective. Jannick Green, the Danish goalkeeper, is very consistent. He will make all the saves he needs to make. While he may not produce great heroics, he will close the door with his defense. The defense just needs to direct the shots where their goalkeeper desires. The lack of shooters on Ivry's side should lead them to go in circles. Consequently, they will likely force solutions that don't exist as the match progresses, leading to a loss of possession.

Therefore, we expect Paris to win by 10 goals, scoring more than 35 goals while keeping Ivry to fewer than 26 goals.

SARAN LOIRET HB VS USAM NÎMES GARD

MARCH 29, 2024 - 8PM

Long distance

Saran remains on the brink of relegation, with a two-point lead over Créteil, keeping them on track. However, their performance against Dunkerque could have been better. Their defense faltered, allowing Dunkerque's game to flourish. They will need better defensive intentions against Nîmes. Nîmes, who were struggling offensively, have now turned the tables. The work directed by Yann Balmossiere paid off as they won 39-37 against Saint-Raphaël. Facing one of the weakest defenses in the league, it was still a significant achievement, and they demonstrated why Jean-Jacques Acquevillo was recently selected for the French national team, showcasing not only his defensive qualities but also his physically intense duels.

Saran, who struggles to contain long-range shooters, is likely to be pierced, first by Mohab Abdelhak, the Egyptian right back, and then by Quentin Minel on the opposite side. Yann Gentil may find himself struggling unless he can perfectly anticipate the opponents' shots. However, his advanced age somewhat diminishes his performance. While he may have lost some explosiveness, he hasn't lost his ability to read the game. He just lacks the agility in defense to be more effective. The lack of depth in the central defense means that opposing shooters can fire very close to the goal, around 7 meters, and essentially have their way with the defense. With their wrist shot quality, reading becomes more complex.

Considering all these factors, it's likely that Nîmes will secure a victory thanks to their shooters, with a score around 33-27.

FENIX TOULOUSE HANDBALL VS US CRÉTEIL HANDBALL

MARCH 29, 2024 - 8:30PM

A question of ball control

The team that loses the fewest turnovers in this championship faces the team that loses the most. Needless to say, the advantage lies with Toulouse. That's why they are 4th with 28 points, while Créteil languishes second to last with only 8 points. Yet, Créteil has qualities, but they haven't understood the importance of possession and the cost it incurs. It's better to sustain the attack and not lose possession, which allows for better anticipation of defensive transitions. Unfortunately, they do just the opposite, conceding countless counterattacks. This, by the way, must significantly dent the confidence of their goalkeepers, who find themselves regularly bombarded from 6 meters. And this pattern persists from match to match.
Their game is stereotyped with many cross movements around the central pivot. While they often find their pivot, they also force many situations. This is indeed one way to attack Toulouse, but it likely won't be enough. They also need to create strong phases on both sides to open up spaces or exploit the outer intervals following their central movements. So yes, Valentin Aman, Créteil's pivot, should still have plenty of balls and preferential situations, especially against Toulouse's defensive game plan. Toulouse manages the pivot through zone movements but with considerable depth, allowing Valentin Aman ample time to position himself underneath. However, with persistent forcing, Toulouse will regain possession.

On the other hand, Toulouse will take their time to build their attack to find the optimal solution. They might initially opt for the first strong phase, but they're willing to accept an even more evident and open situation if it presents itself.

That's why once again Toulouse should emerge victorious with more than a 5-goal margin. Créteil will remain stuck in second to last place. Fortunately for them, Saran still isn't winning. Otherwise, the threat of relegation would become increasingly apparent.