Miami, USA, Qualifying, Qualification round 1
The final hardcourt tournament before transitioning to the clay season means all the top players will be giving their all, especially considering there's a week's break before the next major clay event. This classic fast hardcourt, where service and powerful shots make a significant difference, combined with high temperatures will test the athletes' physicality following an intense week. Last year's winner, Medvedev, deserves attention, as do Khachanov, who exited early at Indian Wells, and Sinner, aiming to redeem last year's final loss. Notably, Djokovic's withdrawal will likely see him preparing more thoroughly for the clay season. Unlike Indian Wells, Miami presents high humidity, complicating defense due to reduced ball bounce, plus potential rain and wind could further challenge especially less experienced players who may overhit, resulting in unforced errors.
Diallo G. vs. Nagal S.
Both players share similar styles, using their serve to open up the court and then attacking from the baseline. The main difference lies in Diallo's power and shot heaviness, which has been on display, such as in his match against Borges at the Phoenix Challenger. Nagal, following an impressive Australian Open performance, seems a bit lost but is likely eager to perform well again, though this match largely depends on Diallo. A third set could highlight the Canadian's emergence.
Gaston H. vs. Wong C.
Gaston, known for his less impactful physical attributes, tends to disrupt his opponent's play, but after an early exit at Indian Wells, he's shown recovery in the Phoenix Challenger. Facing Wong, a 2004-born player making his debut at this level through a wildcard and emerging in the challenger circuit, Gaston will need to lead early to dampen the young opponent's enthusiasm, considering the wind factor and his experience.
Grenier H. vs. Kokkinakis T.
Both players excel from the baseline, relying on their service returns. Kokkinakis distinguishes himself with a devastating forehand and consistency in service. Grenier's aggressiveness could pose a threat whenever Kokkinakis slips in service. The match might see at least one tie-break due to their strong serves, but the Australian is likely to prevail in the end.
Kovacevic A. vs. Kypson P.
This evenly matched game features players comparable in skill and suited to the surface, with Kovacevic slightly better at handling adverse weather conditions. Post-rain play might give him a slight edge, foreseeing a potential third set with Kovacevic possibly coming from behind to avenge last year's loss in the Champaign Challenger.
Meligeni Alves F. vs. Bergs Z.
Meligeni Alves struggles on fast surfaces and, with the clay season approaching, might opt out early if he loses the first set badly, focusing instead on clay Challengers. Bergs, favoring these courts, with good vertical play and heavy shots, especially his serve, is highly favored in what should be a straightforward match, barring emotional surges from the Brazilian.
Seyboth Wild T. vs. Dzumhur D.
After a notable performance at Indian Wells, including a victory over a top 15 player, Seyboth Wild's subsequent loss shows he plays well when free from pressure. The hardcourt suits his game perfectly, making him the clear favorite. Dzumhur, coming off a not-so-bitter loss to Garin in Phoenix, competes well on this surface but faces a significant challenge against Seyboth Wild.
Walton A. vs. Monteiro T.
Walton, comfortable on this surface but inconsistent, has a variety of classic hardcourt shots. Despite the ranking difference, he's slightly favored. Monteiro hasn't played on hard courts since last year's US Open, focusing on clay this season, which might influence his performance against Walton, depending on the latter's match approach.
Garin C. vs. Vacherot V.
Garin, still recovering from last season's injury, shows promise with a good serve and forehand but can be inconsistent. Vacherot, having taken a break since the New Delhi Challenger, may have prepared specifically for this tournament. The match leans towards Garin, given Vacherot's lack of shot incisiveness but consistent play that forces opponents to hit one extra shot.
Atmane T. vs. Lestienne C.
Atmane is in great form and faces Lestienne, who withdrew last week in Phoenix and is doubtful for this match. If Lestienne plays at his best, the match could be competitive, but Atmane has a real chance to take advantage of his opponent's uncertain condition.
Hassan B. vs. Bautista R.
Hassan, a Challenger player with a powerful right but lacking first serve percentage, faces Bautista, the former world number 10, preparing for a strong finish to his career after resting post-Dubai and skipping Indian Wells to focus on Miami, where he has historically performed well. With precise right shots, variations, and rhythm, plus his experience, Bautista is the favorite. However, physical fitness could be the only question mark in this match.
Mensik J. vs. Nardi L.
This match features two of the most in-form young players outside the top ranks, in a qualifying round that could easily be a first-round match in an ATP 500 event. Mensik's physical power and complete game are pitted against Nardi's technical variety and adjustments. Despite my Italian bias hoping for Nardi, Mensik's dominance might be too much, expecting a hard-fought match potentially going to a third set, but Mensik likely to come out on top.
Nava E. vs. Halys Q.
Nava, a young player with strong baseline shots but prone to errors, faces Halys, who has similar powerful shots but with more variation and fewer mistakes. Considering their recent encounter at the Phoenix Challenger, which Halys won, players often adjust their game in rematches. With the surface favoring him, Nava might surprise, leading to a potential third-set victory.
These matches, set against the backdrop of the last hardcourt tournament before the clay season, promise intense competition. Players will be keen to maximize their performance before the circuit transitions to clay, making for an eventful tournament filled with strategic plays and potential upsets.