Miami, USA, Qualifying, Qualification round 2
The final hardcourt tournament before the shift to the clay season is pivotal, with top players pushing their limits, especially considering a break before the next major clay event. Fast hardcourts, where serve and powerful shots prevail, combined with high temperatures, will challenge the athletes' endurance after an already intense week. Last year's winner, Medvedev, merits attention alongside Khachanov, who exited early at Indian Wells, and Sinner, aiming for redemption after last year's final loss. Djokovic's notable withdrawal likely sets him up for a focused clay season preparation. Miami's high humidity contrasts with Indian Wells, complicating defense due to lower ball bounces, and potential rain could exacerbate these conditions, not to mention the impact of wind on less experienced players prone to unforced errors.
Damm M. vs. Zhang Z.
Zhang's dominance is anticipated against Damm, who, despite not being weak on hard courts, chose to play in the Tenerife Challenger over the American one in Phoenix, possibly due to a lack of confidence on fast surfaces. In contrast, Zhang thrives on speed, making him the clear favorite, especially as he seeks to redeem a surprising loss to Nardi at Indian Wells.
Darderi L. vs. Shapovalov D.
Darderi, effective on slower surfaces like clay, faces Shapovalov, a hardcourt expert whose powerful shots should dictate the match. The main concern for Shapovalov is his mental consistency, particularly under pressure, though he should not face significant challenges in this match.
Draper J. vs. Daniel T.
Draper looks to bounce back from an unexpected loss at Indian Wells. His serve and aggressive net play make him the strong favorite against Daniel, who has been struggling recently. Draper's occasional lapses in concentration could give Daniel opportunities, but Draper is favored to win.
Fils A. vs. Arnaldi M.
This evenly matched game promises excitement, reminiscent of their five-set clash at last year's US Open. Fils, slightly more aggressive, faces Arnaldi's variety. The match could go either way, with Fils possibly avenging last year's loss in a closely contested battle.
Giron M. vs. Koepfer D.
Giron's lack of shot incisiveness and service issues were evident against Kokkinakis at Indian Wells. Koepfer is in good form but may struggle physically in the heat if the match extends. Giron, known for his physicality, might overcome an early setback to win.
Kecmanovic M. vs. Shang J.
Kecmanovic's fluctuating form and vulnerability to aggressive players pose a challenge against the rising Chinese star, Shang. This match, likely not dominated by service, could see the young Chinese player pulling off an upset.
Kotov P. vs. Van Assche L.
This intriguing match features players strong in return but weaker in serve. Weather conditions and recent form favor Van Assche, though Kotov's power gives him a slight edge. The match could end quickly in Kotov's favor or become a long battle.
Lajovic D. vs. Monfils G.
Lajovic's declining performance on fast courts does not bode well against a rejuvenated Monfils. With the possibility of Lajovic opting out early to prepare for the clay season, Monfils is expected to secure a straightforward victory.
Murray A. vs. Berrettini M.
Murray, showing promise against Rublev, faces physical challenges, especially in Miami's humid conditions. Berrettini, aiming to respond to his first adversary since reaching the Phoenix Challenger final, benefits from the surface, making this a potentially close match with the Italian favored to win.
Ofner S. vs. Nishikori K.
Ofner's performance has not lived up to expectations, with excessive unforced errors following a strong previous year. Nishikori, returning after a break and comfortable on these courts, could trouble the Austrian, assuming his physical condition is solid.
Ruusuvuori E. vs. Hanfmann Y.
Ruusuvuori, looking to recharge after a disappointing Indian Wells, is dangerous on hardcourts against players like Hanfmann, who struggles with consistency. Expect Ruusuvuori to capitalize on this advantage.
Sonego L. vs. Evans D.
Sonego, riding high on recent performances, faces Evans, who may struggle with the heat and surface. Despite Evans' varied game, Sonego is anticipated to mount a comeback victory, supported by their recent Australian Open encounter.
Auger-Aliassime F. vs. Walton A.
Despite a poor form period and a lack of results causing him to drop 27 spots in the rankings, Auger-Aliassime remains a complete and decisive player who excels on fast surfaces. The difference in skill level with his opponent, who has already performed a miracle by making it into the draw, is too significant. I see this match as fairly one-sided.
Kovacevic A. vs. Maroszan F.
Kovacevic has relatively easily passed the qualifications, showcasing his trademark serving percentages. However, having played against opponents within his reach where he could dictate the play, facing Maroszan, who has significantly improved and found confidence and consistency at Indian Wells, might not always be possible and could potentially put him in difficulty.
Nava E. vs. Bautista R.
Nava smoothly made it through the qualifications, even defeating opponents stronger and more consistent than him. He is a very capable young player but often gives away too many unforced errors, costing him matches—a trend he has been improving on recently by giving away far fewer chances. On the other hand, Bautista, a veteran who has always performed well here, is advancing in age but could pressurize his opponent to gain advantages in this match. Nonetheless, it's expected to be a closely contested match, possibly decided in a third set.
Popyrin A. vs. Diaz Acosta F.
Popyrin, a powerful player with a heavy serve and forehand that can make a difference on fast courts, is the absolute favorite after a well-played tournament in Dubai, despite a recent leg issue. Diaz Acosta has exclusively played on clay, winning a home tournament, with his last hardcourt appearance at the Australian Open, managing to take two sets off a struggling Fritz. As a typical clay-court Argentine player with little incisiveness and many variations, his style is much less effective against Popyrin's gameplay. The main concern in this match is related to the Australian's physical condition.
Tabilo A. vs. Nakashima B.
Tabilo, an atypical South American player with a tall stature, prefers fast surfaces where his serve helps him effectively open the field. However, coming off many matches on clay, he might struggle with the surface change. Nakashima is very familiar with and enjoys playing on American hardcourts. Like many Americans, his serve and forehand are his strengths, favoring him in this encounter, but he should not underestimate the Chilean.