Serbia – Italy

International - FIBA World Cup, 2nd round, Group I, Round 1

The Basketball Expert

Serbia has maneuvered through the World Cup's initial phase much like they did four years ago in China. They won all three games quite easily. However, the truth is that their opponents lacked the quality to truly test the "Eagles." Captain Bogdan Bogdanovic is emerging as the team's top scorer, closely followed by the talented Nikola Jovic and Nikola Milutinov. This trio constitutes the core of Serbia's team at this Mundobasket. The roster also boasts several EuroLeague players, such as Marko Guduric, Aleksa Avramovic, Vanja Marinkovic and Ognjen Dobric. Head coach Svetislav Pesic was under a lot of criticsm in media in the last two years. Occasionally, he is failing to react appropriately during games. Under his guidance, Serbia shockingly lost to Italy in the EuroBasket round of 16 last year, even with Nikola Jokic and Vasilije Micic on the team.

As just mentioned, Italy stunned basketball fans worldwide when they defeated Serbia 12 months ago. Gianmarco Pozzecco's ejection turned the game entirely. In comparison to that matchup, Italy's roster remains nearly identical. Key players (Simone Fontecchio, Achille Polonara, Marco Spissu, Stefano Tonut, Luigi Datome, Nicolo Melli) are all geared up for another clash with Serbia. In the group stage, Italy's performance was below expectations. Losing to the Dominican Republic and struggling against Angola and the Philippines, they seem to be gradually finding their form, but this is the decisive test. A loss to Serbia would mark the end of their World Cup journey, as they'd have no further chances to qualify for the quarterfinals. A victory, however, flips the scenario in their favor.

Throughout the ongoing World Cup, Italy has struggled with three-point shooting, an unusual trait for them. It was in this manner that they eliminated Serbia last year, and it's inevitable that they'll find their rhythm at some point. Defending Italy's pick-and-pop game will pose challenges for Serbia, given that Milutinov isn't an ideal center for such defense. At the EuroBasket last year, coach Pesic had Jokic, Micic, Lucic and Kalinic as Serbia top performers. None of them are part of the current roster. Consequently, there's no reason Italy shouldn't outperform Serbia once again, which is notably weaker now compared to that period. In any case, it's anticipated that the "Azzurri" will remain competitive until the very end.

Pistol Pete

Serbian basketball players and the entire basketball public of that country well remember the trauma of last year's unexpected defeat by Italy, in the round of 16 of Eurobasket. Now, at the start of the World Cup Second Phase, they have the opportunity to pay off that debt.
All that the Group Stage of the World Cup showed was that Serbia came significantly better prepared than Italy to the world championship. It turned out that the national team of the experienced and famous coach Svetislav Pesic has much more attacking "weapons", than it was expected before the World Cup. Thus, Puerto Rico, China and South Sudan were defeated in the group with as many as 30.3 points on average! Pesic simply insisted that in every variant of five players on the court, his team plays seriously.
The characteristic of Serbia is the tough defense, which, after the rival misses, easily opens the fast transition for good shots. This is how this team effectively punishes rivals. It turns out that reliable center Nikola Milutinov is a great replacement for NBA superstar Nikola Jokic, who is not with the national team this year. The players share the responsibility, they are aware that they need top defense. NBA guard Bogdan Bogdanovic is currently playing at a high level both as a scorer and as a playmaker. However, a particularly important factor on the court is the finally recovered playmaker Stefan Jovic. The specialist for exceptional defense has an average of 8.3 assists so far at the World Cup. His play in the pick-and-roll with Milutinov is exceptional, so the center of Serbia has a double-double average score, so far in this tournament.
Italy has been disappointing overall so far. Even the 81:67 victory over Angola at the start of the World Cup was much more difficult than expected. The loss to the Dominican Republic was a glimpse into the new reality of this national team, although the Italians have significantly more options in the rotation. Then they defeated the Philippines and secured passage to the Second Phase – in a match in which the Italians scored as many as 17 three-pointers. They need such a shooting day against Serbia, and it is unlikely that it will happen again.
Last year at Eurobasket Italy won 94:86. Now it seems that the match may go ahead even without the suspense in final minutes. Quite simply, compared to last year's team, Serbia has corrected numerous problems in defense and they no longer have the tendency to allow their rivals to score a large number of points in the series.
Serbia is expected to score a large number of points again, although not over 100, which was the case in previous games. However, there is a good probability that Pesic's squad will reach a victory with a double-digit margin. The team brings a lot of confidence to the match - Serbia is aware that with a win the'll secure a place in the quarterfinals.
Before this match, power forward in the Serbia national team, Borisa Simanic, suffered a serious injury and ended his appearance at the World Cup... However, he was the player with by far the least minutes in this team's rotation.