Italy – Basket Serie A, Round 16
Cremona-Trento 13/01/24
Great disappointment for Cremona, missing out on the Coppa Italia Final Eight in the final moments of the play-in against Pistoia (64-60). Denegri and his teammates gave the impression of being off-form, but it's not a crisis for a newly-promoted team alternating wins and losses in the last 9 games. Statistically, a win should come on Saturday, but an uncomfortable opponent like Trento awaits at the PalaRadi. Trento is also struggling (3 consecutive losses in Serie A and Eurocup) but has an edge in individual quality (especially Grazulis) and roster depth. The balance tips slightly towards the visitors in a match where defenses prevail over offenses, with a total score below 160 points.
Sassari-Pistoia, 14/01/24 CET 12:00
With a shiver, risking squandering a 30-point lead accumulated in the third quarter, Dinamo secured a crucial away win against Pesaro (69-79). This result comes at a delicate moment in the season, with the Champions League also heating up. Breein Tyree has been instrumental in salvaging situations and is now the team's stable top-scorer. Now, Dinamo needs to climb the standings, where Pistoia is celebrating (8-7) with the last victory securing a spot in the Coppa Italia. A dream achievement for the newly-promoted team, earned through merit and solid defense, even when Payton Willis had an unusually off day shooting. It's expected that there might be a drop in tension in Sardinia, in a challenging arena, and with numbers allowing some breathing space. Considering the variety of solutions on the court, Sassari is favored for the win.
Varese-Venice 14/01/24 CET 16:30
Another impressive performance on Treviso's court (96-101), and Varese continues its ascent. Since Nico Mannion's arrival, it's four victories out of four between the league and the Europe Cup, with an average of 98 points per game for the red and whites. With a few more strong performances, dreams of the playoffs could replace the ghosts of the relegation zone. The path to this goal goes through the league leaders, Venice, who are coming off an unexpected defeat against Napoli (81-89), somewhat painless but compounded by the exertions of the Eurocup. Key players like Wiltjer and Tucker ended up injured after the marathon against Besiktas (106-96), conditions to monitor. The positive news, looking ahead, is the addition of Max Heidegger to the playmaker position. However, new tactical balances need to be found. Given Varese's regained offensive prowess and the intense pace they are adapting to, as well as the potential injury concerns for Venice, a medium to high-scoring match is expected, with over 170 total points. The outcome is open to any scenario, with reserves of energy in the fourth quarter potentially reshuffling the deck.
Milan-Tortona, 14/01/24 CET 17:00
A late-game play by Napier secured Milan the Coppa Italia and a victory against Trento away (74-79), setting up a quarter-final clash with Aquila. The Serie A journey (9-6) is still long and challenging, with Olimpia called upon to do more, even though efforts are currently rightly directed towards the ascent in the Euroleague. Tortona, on the other hand, has just exited Europe and can now focus solely on the league. The team gave coach De Raffaele a dominant home debut with an 89-52 victory over Scafati. At the Forum, Baldasso and his teammates will play openly without much to lose. Milan has often allowed slip-ups this season, but they seem to be improving mentally as well. A home win is expected, although Tortona might put up a fight by tightening their defense.
Brescia-Treviso, 14/01/24 CET 18:15
A delicate moment for Brescia, following an unexpected defeat to Brindisi (88-79, the second consecutive away loss) revealing a physical decline in Della Valle and company. The focus is on the Coppa Italia as defending champions, while cohabiting with Reyer at the top of the standings provides a sense of security. Treviso might capitalize on this, having halted their climb to safety with two defeats in photo-finish encounters against Pistoia and Varese. Vitucci's team is still second to last, but only one point away from the third-to-last position, and with Olisevicius in the rotations, they have shown they can compete with anyone. On paper, the game seems one-sided, with Brescia favored in every aspect, but Treviso could make the contest much more uncertain than the data suggests.
Naples-Pesaro, 14/01/24 CET 18:30
The return to the top eight, including an excellent scalp in Venice against the league leaders (81-89), has brought back forgotten enthusiasm to Naples after a decade-long drought. In the last round, Sokolowski and his teammates responded well to a natural physical decline, dominating Reyer from beyond the arc and asserting themselves in the paint with Owens' plays. All these elements will be useful on Sunday against a Pesaro team increasingly wounded (record 5-10) and drawn into the battle to avoid relegation. Coach Buscaglia was relieved of his duties during the week, with veteran Meo Sacchetti taking his place. The team needs restoration, possibly with the help of the transfer market, but a emotional boost in Naples would be a significant signal. Against all predictions, if they could trip up the white and blue in a match otherwise well-directed towards a home victory.
Scafati-Reggiana, 14/01/24 CET 19:30
Bouncing back from the Derthona setback and starting afresh. After missing out on the Coppa Italia, Scafati's hidden dream is the playoffs. However, feet on the ground and a secured salvation are prerequisites for Robinson and his teammates, as the journey is still long. On the other hand, Reggiana has aspirations for a high position, capable of claiming a notable victory against Virtus Bologna in the last round (72-66). In Campania, an open game is expected, with around 160 total points, featuring significant mismatches on both ends. Gentile and Gamble's physicality could be a puzzle for the visitors, while Hervey and Galloway's baskets will be hard to avoid for Scafati. The experience of Reggio is countered by the X-factor of Logan and his teammates, who, when they light up in the final moments, can trouble anyone.
Virtus Bologna-Brindisi, 15/01/24 CET 20:00
The lesson from the first leg should be enough: this Virtus cannot afford to underestimate Brindisi if they want to establish themselves as the dominators of the championship. The 33% of losses so far is well beyond the acceptable limit - a statistic that the defeat against Reggio Emilia (72-66) further questioned. Brindisi, despite being at the bottom of the table, proved to be an unexpected giant-killer by defeating Brescia as well (88-79). Pulling off an upset in Bologna in the late game would be more than an achievement, despite Xavier Sneed's exponential growth. Virtus, from Shengelia to Belinelli, simply has more in every aspect and is also haunted by the missteps in the Euroleague. A quick rebound at home is almost obligatory: expect a clear victory for Bologna, possibly with a lead of more than 10-15 points.