ABA League – Round 10
INTERNATIONAL – ROUND 10, 01/12/23
Split-Krka: Another step forward 01/12/23
With the return of Lewis Sullivan and Shannon Shorter to the club, Split has gained significant quality. This was evident in their road game against Mornar in the last round, where they secured a crucial 93:76 win. The duo combined for 43 points, transforming Split into a completely different team than the one we saw in the early part of the season. They no longer face as many issues in offense, and it is expected that they will continue with solid performances in the upcoming games. The perfect opportunity for this comes in the clash against Krka, who, in terms of individual talent, is considered the weakest team in the ABA League alongside Cibona.
Krka's main issue lies in the paint where apart from Jurij Macura, they lack a player capable of controlling the rebounds. The only chance for this team to compete in a game is a good three-point shooting performance, as was the case when they surprised Mega two weeks ago in Belgrade. However, if their shooting is not effective, they struggle to overcome even Cibona on their home court. This game could unfold in two scenarios: one where Krka fails to hit anything from beyond the arc, resulting in a convincing double-digit loss, and the other where they manage to match up against Shorter and Sullivan. However, even in the latter case, it may not be enough for anything more than a honorable defeat.
Igokea-Mornar: It should be easy for the hosts, 02/12/23
Because Mornar is in complete mess. They are at the bottom of the ABA League, which is a serious shock for them. They certainly did not expect to find themselves in this position and are currently changing almost the entire roster. In the last seven days, they have signed Tavian Dunn-Martin, Feron Hunt and Marcus Weathers, while Jacobi Boykins, Jamal Johnson and Makol Mawien are no longer with the club. The changes probably won't stop there because Mornar in any scenario does not want to be relegated to a lower rank, so they will do everything in their power to avoid it. If that means changing 10 players, it will happen. Head coach Mihailo Pavicevic will certainly not be fired, as the club is run by him and his brother Djordjije, who is the president.
There is no doubt that Mornar will start playing better at some point later in the season with the new players, but facing Igokea comes at a very difficult moment. Igokea and Mornar traditionally have exceptionally good and friendly relations, but that should not affect the outcome of this clash. If something spectacular and unexpected does not happen, then the hosts should secure a win with at least a double-digit difference. They have already beaten Buducnost and Cedevita Olimpija at home, who are among the top 4 teams in the competition, as well as Partizan at road. Against a team going through the process of changes and showing the least of all, there shouldn't be any problems.
Borac Cacak-Buducnost: Failure is not an option for the visitors 02/12/23
Buducnost changed their head coach last week, but the shock therapy did not succeed. They lost to Cedevita Olimpija in the last round of the ABA League, and in no way can they allow themselves another loss. During the summer, they assembled an extremely powerful team on paper that has not yet found the right chemistry. It is now up to the new coach Zakelj to make all these players act as a cohesive unit because if he doesn't change the course of the struggling ship soon, he will be working on borrowed time.
Borac Cacak has played some excellent games so far. Wins against Studentski Centar, Mega and FMP have shown that they have finally put together a good team. In the previous two seasons, they struggled to avoid relegation, and that should not be the case now. Their advantage lies in the paint where Tylan Birts and Ja'Von Franklin make a significant difference for this team. On the other hand, their three-point shooting is terribly poor. They make three-pointers in only 25.5% of situations, making them by far the worst in the ABA League in that segment.
The problem in this game for Borac Cacak is that Buducnost has the strength and quality to prevent them from scoring a large number of easy points in the paint. The visitors are capable of hitting from long range at a much higher percentage, and that will likely make the difference in their favor here. Considering that Buducnost is coming after a difficult and exhausting trip from the Canary Islands, they may not have the freshness for a high-paced game for the full 40 minutes, which means they will likely look to establish the desired lead as soon as possible and maintain it until the end. At some point, Buducnost should reach a double-digit advantage, and in the end, they should win this game by at least two possessions. The most realistic outcome is a triumph between six and twelve points difference.
FMP-Partizan: Partizan will have no mercy 02/12/23
Partizan and FMP hate each other and in these games, both teams play with a huge dose of motivation. Due to a bad approach and underestimating opponents, the black and whites lost to Igokea and Mega, which is unbelievable when you have Zeljko Obradovic as the head coach, the best in the history of his profession in Europe. Against Borac Cacak in the last round, Partizan responded. They played 40 serious minutes without a second of relaxation and crushed the opponent by 101:56. Regardless of the double round in the EuroLeague ahead, Partizan will approach every ABA League game seriously until the end of the season because winning the title in that competition is the only guarantee that they will play in the EuroLeague next season.
FMP lost to the same Borac Cacak by 96:75 a few weeks ago. In the last round, they unexpectedly lost to Studentski Centar at home. FMP's defense is not working at all, and everyone finds a way to score easy points against them. There is no way the home team in this game can slow down or threaten Partizan's offense, which is the best in the EuroLeague in offensive rating. It is expected that Partizan will easily achieve a double-digit lead in this clash, which will constantly grow. The guests will likely reach a double-digit triumph here without much trouble, and if they are motivated to press until the end, another blowout like in the last round is possible. Perhaps not by 45 points, but over 20 is not out of the question.
Cedevita Olimpija-Zadar: Tricky game in an extremely fast pace 03/12/23
With five consecutive wins, Cedevita Olimpija has risen to 7-2 in the ABA League, and things look much better than they did at the beginning of November. Due to health problems, head coach Simone Pianigiani has not led the team for almost 30 days, but with his return to the bench, it seems like a new energy has emerged. Starting point guard Justin Cobbs has also returned from injury, and without him, they had significant problems organizing the offense. Karlo Matkovic's injury has complicated things a bit, but Cedevita Olimpija quickly reacted and signed veteran Rasid Mahalbasic, who is expected to make his debut in this round.
Although Cedevita Olimpija is in excellent form, this is a game they need to be cautious about. Zadar has been making the biggest overachievement in the ABA League for two seasons. In the last round, they were very close to beat Igokea at road. They led by 16 points at the end of the first half and had a six-point lead a few minutes before the end of the fourth quarter. However, Igokea pulled through and secured a win in overtime. Zadar will arrive in Ljubljana with the same mentality, aiming to win. Cedevita Olimpija is an absolute favorite based on individual quality and current form, but the problem with this team is that it is unable to play well for a continuous 40 minutes. They experience ups and downs, and when Zadar smells blood, they can be dangerous. Zadar's problem is a short rotation, but their playing style is such that they always want to run and play for a high number of points, just like Cedevita Olimpija.
From that perspective, it is very challenging to predict the outcome of this game. Cedevita Olimpija can easily win by a double-digit margin because they have much higher individual quality. Still, likewise, if Zadar shoots at high percentages, they can create an upset. However, one thing is certain. The game will be played at a fast pace, with many possessions, and plenty of easy points on both sides. In the end, this should lead to a game with more than 165 points.
Crvena Zvezda-Cibona: It will be a difficult Sunday afternoon for Cibona 03/12/23
Cibona caused one of the biggest surprises in the ABA League last season, defeating Crvena Zvezda on their home court by 85:81, despite being a 20-point underdog on paper. This loss cost the red and whites the top spot in the regular season, a crucial turning point in the competition. It has been five and a half years since someone lost a game at home in the finals, and the same was last year as well. Partizan outplayed Crvena Zvezda by 3-2 without a break in five games. Simply put, during that period, the home team always has huge support from the stands that it has such an impact that the guests have minimal chances of achieving victory. Crvena Zvezda had everything in their hands last season to finish in first place and allowed Cibona to take it away from them.
Nine months later, Crvena Zvezda and Cibona will face each other again, this time in Belgrade. The home team will show no mercy. They will seek revenge and play aggressively as if it were the ABA League finals. Cibona is facing significant financial problems, but their players leave everything they have on the court, and it shows in the results. However, they have been winning against opponents who are among the weakest in the competition, while Crvena Zvezda is currently the best. With the approach and determination that the home team will have, this could very easily end with a win by over 25 or 30 points.
Studentski Centar-Mega: The most even game in the round 04/12/23
This is a clash between two teams that are very similar in terms of quality and will fight until the end for a playoff spot. Studentski Centar lacks a fan base and plays its home games in front of fewer than 400 people. In such an atmosphere, there is no pressure on the visiting team. Ten days ago, Studentski Centar changed its coach unexpectedly. Andrej Zakelj accepted an offer to take over Buducnost, and he was succeeded by compatriot Dejan Jakara. On his debut, Jakara managed to defeat FMP away, starting the biggest challenge of his career in the best possible way. Studentski Centar has a good team led by Aubrey Dawkins and Kenan Kamenjas. They have depth, and winning the ABA Super Cup showed that they can compete against the best.
On the other hand, Mega is the youngest team in the ABA League with many huge talents. The club's focus has never been and will never be on the results. They are dedicated to developing young players, and through this system, Nikola Jokic and Vasilije Micic have emerged. The next big talent is point guard Nikola Topic, who could be a top 10 pick in the next NBA draft according to projections. Everything is geared towards his development, and he has the freedom to play. And when you have so many talented players on the roster, it is logical to win games. Mega has had few significant triumphs this year, with the biggest one being against Partizan.
Experience is on the side of the home team, but talent is on the side of the visitors. Mega will try to run as much as possible and outplay Studentski Centar, which also embraces that style of play. In three out of four games these two clubs played against each other in the past two seasons, one of the teams scored at least 100 points. Both teams allow a lot of points to opponents per game, but that's because of their style of play. If shooting percentages are not ridiculously low, this will likely be a game with over 165 points. Winner could easily be decided in the last two minutes.