ABA League – Round 16

Split – Cedevita Olimpija: Neither team wants to lose momentum 12/01/24

Both teams are currently in their best momentum since the beginning of the season. Split has won three out of the last four games in the ABA League and is currently in the race for the eighth spot and playoffs. Cedevita Olimpija defeated Crvena Zvezda last weekend in the debut game of their new head coach Zoran Martic. It is evident that the team from Ljubljana is playing much more relaxed now, and the change has been beneficial for them. They have also brought back veteran Zoran Dragic, who has a significant impact in the locker room, and he was removed by the former head coach Simone Pianigiani. There is no doubt that the quality is on the side of the visitors. Players like Justin Cobbs, Jaka Blazic and Karlo Matkovic could make the difference in favor of Cedevita Olimpija, while on the other hand, besides Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan, there isn't much talent. It mostly comes down to their performance. When they play well, Split can win away against teams like Igokea and Studentski Centar. When that's not the case, losses to much weaker rivals like Cibona happen. If Cedevita Olimpija manages to contain at least one of the two key players from Split, they will be closer to triumph. However, this is the type of match where anything is possible, and there will likely be many lead changes until the very end. A dramatic finish is not ruled out.

Mornar – Zadar: One of the last chances for the hosts 13/01/24

This is the type of game that Mornar absolutely must win to stay in the ABA League. They are at the bottom of the table, but during the season, they brought in six new players. In the last few rounds, they had no luck with the schedule as they played against teams from the upper part of the table. Now, Zadar is coming to Bar, and the hosts see it as a great opportunity for a triumph. Marcus Weathers and Tavian Dunn-Martin have brought new energy and quality to Mornar, and with these two in the roster, this is definitely not the same team as at the beginning of the season. However, the clash with Zadar will be anything but an easy task although Zadar is a team that plays in the shortest rotation in the entire ABA League. In the last game against Studentski Centar, four players spent more than 35 minutes on the court. Everything revolves around Luka Bozic, who was the ABA League MVP and will almost certainly receive that recognition again. If Mornar finds a way to limit his impact, they will be close to victory. The problem for Zadar is also the injury to Marko Ramljak, who has missed the last few games. He is questionable for this match, and if he doesn't play, it will be very difficult to keep up with Mornar for the full 40 minutes, as Mornar insists on playing at a fast pace. Mornar is a financially more powerful team than Zadar, and they have done everything they could during the season to correct transfer mistakes from the summer. Now they have to do it on the court and start winning in a streak to escape from the last place that leads to a lower tier.

Mega – FMP: Always unpredictable outcomes 14/01/23 CET 11:00 am

In the last six head-to-head games between Mega and FMP in the ABA League, the underdog has triumphed five times. This clearly illustrates how challenging it is to predict the outcome when these two Serbian teams face each other. This is especially case now when it's not easy to assess the current state of the clubs. Mega lost their superstar Nikola Topic who signed with Crvena Zvezda a few weeks ago. Many expected them to start losing games from that moment, but the opposite happened. They defeated Cedevita Olimpija and Borac Cacak, confirming that there are still several super-talented players in the team. However, Mega is unquestionably the youngest team in the ABA League, and big ups and downs in form are normal. On the other hand, FMP has a much more powerful roster on paper. Their results however haven't matched expectations this season. They secured crucial road victories against Mornar and Krka, but both games were dramatic until the very end. Krka incredibly managed to lose, and Mornar missed a shot for the win. After those two victories, it was reasonable to expect FMP to rise and outplay Cibona at home, but they disappointed again. Looking at all the names in FMP's roster, such as Vojislav Stojanovic, Ognjen Kuzmic, Matic Rebec and several American players, one would expect them to be in the top 6. However, team chemistry is lacking. Mega enters this match in a much better momentum, but as mentioned earlier, the underdog has often emerged as the winner in these matchups, and FMP holds that role this time.

Krka – Buducnost: Pivotal game for both teams 14/01/23 CET 16:00

In terms of individual talent and budget, Krka is considered the weakest team in the ABA League and the primary candidate for relegation to a lower tier. However, they currently have two more wins than Mornar and are in a safe zone. Their challenge is that Mornar has invested significant resources in the past month to improve things, and if Krka wants to avoid the last place, they will need at least three or four more wins by the end of the season. They missed a great opportunity against FMP, having a two-point lead and possession with less than 15 seconds remaining, but they managed to lose the ball and concede a basket in the last second. Now, Buducnost comes to Novo Mesto, a team that is definitely not performing up to expectations. Although they are expected to be the underdog by more than six points on paper, Krka is hopeful of securing a victory. Buducnost is another team that has been unpredictable and challenging to read this season, as demonstrated in the last round when they narrowly defeated Mornar in overtime, despite being favored by more than 15 points. Their approach is often casual, and few players seem to play with emotion. Recent signings like Yogi Ferrell, Nikola Tanaskovic and Kenan Kamenjas were brought in to address this, but things have remained largely unchanged. Their win against Zadar on the road showcased their significant individual quality. On paper, Buducnost is undoubtedly a better team than Krka by around ten points, but their best performance is rarely consistent. Krka will certainly not give up without a fight, leaving everything on the court. If Buducnost lacks motivation, a significant upset could occur. At the end of the day, everything will depend on the approach of the visitors, and that varies from game to game.

Crvena Zvezda – Borac Cacak: A one-way game 14/01/23 CET 18:30

Crvena Zvezda is the absolute favorite in this game, and there should be no drama here. Especially not after their loss to Cedevita Olimpija in the last round, which brought Partizan within just two wins of the red-and-white team. Although this match comes after a challenging week with a double round in the EuroLeague, where Crvena Zvezda had away games against Asvel and Milano, even the weakest players of the home team are significantly better than the best individuals in Borac. Expect the intensity to be at a high level, and Crvena Zvezda is likely to establish a double-digit lead in the first half, which they will control and extend by the end of the third quarter. When you have a lead of more than 20 points, there might be a potential dip in performance in the fourth quarter, allowing the opponent to reduce the deficit to less than 20 points. However, in the end, Crvena Zvezda should not have any problems, especially not in the first half while playing with a high defensive intensity.

Studentski Centar – Igokea: Another Igokea head coach ends his mission in Podgorica? 14/01/23 CET 20:00

Last season, the most decorated coach in Igokea's history, Dragan Bajic, submitted a resignation after his team suffered a debacle in Podgorica. Studentski Centar defeated them by 104:85, and a very similar scenario could unfold twelve months later. Igokea is in a series of four consecutive losses in the ABA League, and there are rumors circulating that head coach Vladimir Jovanovic could be dismissed if his team experiences another heavy defeat. In the current situation, this is a very plausible scenario. After being eliminated from the FIBA Champions League, Igokea parted ways with four key players, deciding not to invest much money in this season anymore. However, even with these developments, they probably did not expect to lose home games to teams like Cibona and Split. If you can't beat such teams at home in the ABA League, the question is, whom can you beat? Studentski Centar is currently a level above Igokea in terms of quality and is a significant favorite to achieve victory here, especially after their recent narrow losses to Split and Zadar. This is the type of game where Studentski Centar should have control from start to finish, and the only question is in which direction the game will go. Regardless, by the fourth quarter, the hosts should have a double-digit lead, securing a win by at least three possessions. Igokea simply doesn't have the quality it had a month ago when players like Stefan Moody, Nemanja Gordic, Nikola Tanaskovic and Zoran Nikolic were still on the team.

Cibona – Partizan: Another miracle is unlikely to happen 15/01/23 CET 17:00

Partizan has already experienced a shocking defeat in Croatia this season, losing to Zadar three weeks ago, and it is not realistic to expect a similar scenario again. Although Cibona is performing above expectations, this simply isn't a game where they can hope for anything significant. Partizan cannot afford any more losses in the ABA League if they intend to finish at the top spot after 26 rounds. Cibona has already exceeded all expectations, with their ambition solely being to avoid finishing last and relegation. With six wins after 15 rounds, it seems like their ambitions have been fulfilled. Partizan holds a much higher quality at all positions, and the outcome will depend on their approach. Following a disappointing experience in Zadar, it is realistic for Partizan to impose a strong intensity from the start on both ends of the court, relying on a high-paced game and steals to establish a double-digit lead in the first half. This lead can then be extended, and the visitors can likely secure a victory by at least a 15-point margin. Anything less would be a big surprise in this matchup.