ABA League – Round 19

FMP – Igokea: It's time to shine
04/02/24 CET 16:00

FMP suffered a loss to Split in the previous round of the ABA League, bringing their record to 5-13. Considering the recent results of Krka and Mornar, FMP must take the upcoming period very seriously to avoid putting themselves in a dangerous situation. On paper, FMP has a decent team, but on the court, they appear to be struggling. Roles are not well distributed, and it seems that the board management has made several questionable moves in the past six months. There is a lack of creativity in their offensive plays, and the numerous player changes during the season did not seem to have a positive impact. Nevertheless, this is a game that FMP must win. They have greater individual quality than Igokea and will undoubtedly have much more motivation. Although Igokea managed to defeat Borac Cacak in the previous round, it is not realistic to expect a repeat performance in Zeleznik. Igokea is playing in a relaxed manner, with a good result not being their primary focus. As soon as they were eliminated from the FIBA Champions League, they allowed four of their best players to leave the club and move to other teams to relieve the budget pressure. Last week, Haris Delalic also left the team. Igokea's goal is to develop young players like Kosta Kondic, Ognjen Stankovic and Mihailo Boskovic, and as a result, their performance may suffer for the remainder of this season. It is expected that FMP will have full control in this matchup and ultimately triumph by at least two possessions, possibly even more.

Borac Cacak – Cedevita Olimpija: It's not an easy environment to play in, 03/02/24 CET 18:00

Borac Cacak is known for having one of the most passionate home crowds in the ABA League. Despite having a small arena that accommodates only 3,000 spectators, it is always packed, and the proximity between the court and the stands creates an intense atmosphere that visiting players keenly feel. Borac Cacak thrives on this energy, often delivering better performances at home than their overall quality might suggest. This season, they've added several quality foreign players, with Ronaldo Segu standing out. While their initial goal was likely to avoid relegation, being close to the playoff zone has raised their ambitions. For Cedevita Olimpija, this game holds special significance as it marks the departure of starting center Karlo Matkovic to the NBA. It will serve as his farewell match for the Ljubljana-based club. Teammates will likely want to secure a win as a parting gift for Matkovic. However, considering the significant career opportunity ahead for the Croatian center, he might play cautiously to avoid any injuries that could jeopardize his near future. Justin Cobbs and Jaka Blazic lead the team's backcourt and possess higher individual quality than any player on Borac Cacak, but they may need contributions from the bench. If this game were played on neutral ground, Cedevita Olimpija would be the clear favorite. However, in Cacak, it is more realistic to expect a closely contested game that could go down to the wire, with the outcome decided in one of the final possessions.

Buducnost – Crvena Zvezda: More significance for the hosts
05/02/24 CET 16:00

Crvena Zvezda's recent crucial win against Partizan in the ABA League has likely secured their place in the playoffs from the top position. This achievement may provide them with some relaxation, especially considering their upcoming commitments in the EuroLeague, where they will face tough opponents. Before this game in Podgorica, they are playing against Valencia and Barcelona, so they will not be 100% fit. The intense rivalry that has developed between these two clubs in recent years, including three ABA League finals in the last six years, has always made their matchups highly competitive. On the other hand, Buducnost has a realistic chance to finish the regular season in the second place. After experiencing a bad result in the EuroCup this season, achieving a good result in the ABA League holds crucial importance for them. When faced with a similar situation in the past, Crvena Zvezda lost to Cedevita Olimpija after a double round in the EuroLeague. In Podgorica, where the atmosphere is likely to be more fervent, and against a stronger opponent, Buducnost will see this as a significant opportunity. Despite the undeniable quality favoring the visitors, Buducnost has assets to rely on and will likely have a chance for triumph in this matchup.

Partizan – Split: Could be a slow start
05/02/24 CET 18:00

Partizan enters this game after a particularly demanding week in the EuroLeague, where they traveled to Monaco and Bologna. The team has covered a significant number of kilometers, participating in two highly exhausting games. Due to this, head coach Zeljko Obradovic is likely to give rest to some of his key players. It's possible that Kevin Punter or Zach LeDay may not even be in the 12-player roster for the game. This will provide an opportunity for some bench players like Tristan Vukcevic, Balsa Koprivica and Danilo Andjusic to see more playing time. When this happens, it's known that Partizan might start slowly. Split has the quality to play competitively for one or two quarters. There is no doubt that Partizan is the absolute favorite, and they are likely to win by a double-digit margin. However, if there's a slow start for Partizan, Split could make this game interesting for a while. Shannon Shorter and Lewis Sullivan have enough experience and quality to make some tough shots and maintain a rhythm. If there's any drama, the hosts will likely send their best players onto the court to secure the victory without much trouble. Nevertheless, considering that Partizan's bench players will have more playing time than usual, it's not realistic to expect the hosts to be as dominant as they would be in normal circumstances.

Mornar – Cibona: All but one outcome will be a surprise
05/02/24 CET 20:00

And that's a win for Mornar. Despite losing a crucial game against Krka in the last round, this team is playing much better than they did at the beginning of the season. They invested a lot of money during the season to change half of the team, and that has brought progress. Tavian Dunn-Martin has emerged as the leader, and he is the main contributor to victories against Zadar and Studentski Centar. In their worst nightmares, Mornar did not envision fighting to avoid relegation this season. The ambitions were much higher, and now they have to save themselves. If they were to lose to the weak Cibona at home, then a mission impossible would lie ahead of them. Cibona looked impressive in the first part of the season, considering they have by far the smallest budget of all the clubs in the ABA League. Many thought they wouldn't even collect five wins in this campaign, but they are already at number six. Due to significant financial problems, there was a change in the head coach as Jaksa Vulic did not want to work in tough conditions anymore. Since his departure, the team is definitely on the decline. This is the type of game that Mornar should control from start to finish with a secure win without any drama in the final minutes. It might not be a double-digit win, but a victory by two or three possessions is the most realistic scenario.

Zadar – Mega: Experience will play a key role
06/02/24 CET 18:00

Zadar is playing according to expectations. They were a sensation in the ABA League last season and have retained their entire team. Now, they find themselves back in the playoff zone with more than realistic chances of reaching the quarterfinals again. Their ambition is to secure at least the sixth position, which would likely mean avoiding Crvena Zvezda and Partizan. Everything in Zadar's game begins and ends with Luka Bozic. Almost certainly he will be the back-to-back MVP of this competition. He averages around 22 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists. It's impossible to stop him one-on-one, and opponents often send double-teams, which he exploits with his intelligence. Dario Dreznjak and Marko Ramljak often benefit from this, getting a lot of open looks, and Karlo Zganec has been shooting at high percentages lately as well. Mega is by far the youngest team in the ABA League, and their goal is the development of young players, given that the club's de facto owner is Misko Raznatovic, the most popular basketball agent in Europe. They don't have any pressure for results, and a month ago, they allowed their super talent Nikola Topic to sign with Crvena Zvezda because it's the club he loves from his youngest days. Without Topic, there is no chance they can maintain the level they had in the first part of the season, as seen against Buducnost and Partizan. Occasionally, they may pull off a surprise, but it's unlikely to happen on the court in Zadar, where a hostile atmosphere will dominate the stands. Zadar has all the advantages: greater quality, much more experience, a successful head coach, and an exceptional home court. In theory, Mega's only advantage is their youth and running in transition, but that is a style of play that Zadar also emphasizes. The hosts face difficulties when someone engages them in 5-on-5 basketball, which is not Mega's forte. It would be a surprise if Mega triumphs here, and realistically, we may see a high-scoring game.

Krka – Studentski Centar: Huge chance for the hosts
06/02/24 CET 16:00

This game holds extreme significance for Krka. In the last round, they defeated Mornar, giving them a better head-to-head record. These are two teams in the most challenging positions in the ABA League, and now Krka must stay ahead. The match against Studentski Centar is on paper one of the easiest they will have until the end of the season, although the opponent is anything but easy. Krka dominated Mornar in offensive rebounds, something Studentski Centar is unlikely to allow. The individual quality is undoubtedly on the side of the visitors. Aubrey Dawkins has a higher value than half of Krka's team combined, and Mateo Dreznjak and Borna Kapusta can create points in ways few in the home team can. However, the difference is not so significant that Krka cannot hope for a triumph. It is crucial for them to establish control of the pace and not allow many easy points in transition. Krka's challenge is that, apart from Jan Span, rarely does someone dominate in three-point shooting, although Marko Radovanovic and Miha Cerkvenik have shown they can score from a distance. A potential win here would be a significant step towards securing their place in the ABA League for the hosts, and their motivation will be enormous. However, one should not expect an easy or drama-free triumph. This is the type of game that will almost certainly be decided in the last two minutes, where one or two shots can make the difference for both sides.