Venlo – Roda
Netherlands – Eerste divisie, day 10.
Saturday 14/10/23, h16:30
No reason to hide: it’s red alert for Venlo, after another crushing defeat against a lower-ranked opponent, their second in a row – a 3-0 at Jong Ajax’s that followed the 0-4 home-loss versus Helmond. For coach Kruys’ boys, these late results popped out of the blue. For a fact, the beginning of the season was very promising and put Venlo firmly among the underdogs in the fight for Eredivisie. The team secured a positive streak of four victories (11 goals scored, just 3 conceded) from the end of August until mid-September, showing a convincing football and being mentally consistent. Then, the car broke down. Since Magnus Kaastrup’s goal in the first half against Breda – a month ago – Venlo could not hit anymore the back of the net. And when the attacking phase halted, the defensive one consequently faded away: altogether, a combination of psychological and physical collapse that must be fixed without delay. In addition, Kruys is forced to prepare the next match without some of his best players – Kosidis and Timber – due to the Euro 2024 qualifiers. An unnecessary complication.
Roda are at full speed, again, with another easy win – their 7th out of 9 games – last weekend against Jong AZ (3-1). The front-runner of Eerste divisie are legitimating their leadership with both offensive (22 points and as many goals: best attack of the league) and tactical superiority. Moreover, during their most recent match, the 19-years-old midfielder Sami Ouaissa (2 goals in 41’) added his name to the flourishing list of scorers that distinguishes Roda’s project: Pena-Zauner and Ould Chikh (5 each) are the undisputed technical benchmarks, but coach Sibum managed to find significant energies from all his players. The one challenge ahead is to stay the course, and increase their 4 points advantage over the rivals. If anything, it is unlikely that Roda can keep such a dominant rhythm for all the season: that’s why pushing hard now means affording to take a breath hereafter.
Also the records are all pointing in one direction: Venlo have not beaten Roda at home since 2011. The visitors can count on a better shape, plus a technical gap widened dramatically over the last weeks. Conversely, Venlo has at least two factors on their side: the nothing-to-lose mode, against the best team in the league, and Roda’s reduced form on the road (+4 in terms of goal difference, compared to the +13 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion). Probably not enough to overturn the contest, but let’s expect a more balanced match than what the latest numbers suggest.